Sailing route

A geopolitical storm

5 days ago
Written by Ronald Toppe
Sailing route > A geopolitical storm

A geopolitical storm

5 days ago|Written by Ronald Toppe
A geopolitical storm

During the first One Ocean Expedition, Statsraad Lehmkuhl was hit head-on by the pandemic. This time, it’s geopolitics that makes the rigging whistle.

In the autumn of 2024, expedition leader and director of the Statsraad Lehmkuhl Foundation, Haakon Vatle, was focused on the challenges of sailing in the Arctic. The ship was in dry dock for a full overhaul.

Statsraad Lehmkuhl in dock, September 2024. Photo: Ronald Toppe
Statsraad Lehmkuhl in dock, September 2024. Photo: Ronald Toppe

The galley was rebuilt, the rigging and masts were taken down and maintained, and the hull was thoroughly inspected and steel replaced. Everything was made ready for bad weather and demanding conditions.

We speak with Haakon just a few days before Statsraad Lehmkuhl departs on the first leg of the second One Ocean Expedition, and now, it’s completely different concerns that troubles him.

In a matter of weeks, the Trump administration in the U.S. has threatened to annex Greenland, turn Canada into a U.S. state, and take over the Panama Canal. Entering the U.S. has become more difficult. Climate research has been frozen, and staff at agencies monitoring weather and the environment have lost their jobs. In April, the U.S. imposed high tariffs on imports, the markets plunged, and the Norwegian krone went down with them.

Haakon Vatle Photo: Ronald Toppe
Haakon Vatle Photo: Ronald Toppe

– I often joke that the first expedition got hit in the face by COVID – the second one is getting hit in the face by geopolitics, says Haakon.

Close dialogue

Statsraad Lehmkuhl is scheduled to sail through the Northwest Passage between Greenland and Canada, to visit ports in the U.S., and pass through the Panama Canal.

– It’s tricky waters, sure, Haakon smiles. But we bring with us the experiences from the last expedition, when we were hit by COVID. The possibility that something unexpected could happen is always in the back of our minds.

Haakon Vatle and the rest of the expedition leadership are in close dialogue with Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and have regular meetings with the Norwegian embassy in the U.S. and the Consulate General in San Francisco. Norway’s embassy in Copenhagen is also highly engaged. Everyone wants the expedition to succeed.

Crew changes in the U.S.

But the political tremors have already had consequences.

– We’ve been told that some of the people who were supposed to join us can’t participate. Some of them have simply lost their jobs. Doing environmental research in the U.S. isn’t so easy right now, says Haakon.

On board the ship are people from many countries - including nations with which the U.S. no longer has good relations. This can cause complications, since people will disembark or board at several U.S. ports.

– We’re very aware of that. We’re also coordinating with our partners, like the University of Tromsø. Their group will disembark in Whittier, near Anchorage, our first U.S. port, and several of their students are not Norwegian citizens. We’re all aware of the challenges and are taking necessary precautions to make it all go as smoothly as possible. We have a good dialogue with the U.S. Border Control and the U.S. Coast Guard, says Haakon.

The expedition leadership will share all details about the ship with the U.S. authorities, including crew lists and the purpose of the visit, and tries to anticipate challenges before they arise. But it’s an unpredictable world, and Haakon is prepared for things to change.

– We believe it’ll work out, even though it’s demanding, he says.

Greenland

The same day Statsraad Lehmkuhl departed Bergen, news broke that the commander of the U.S. military base in Greenland had been dismissed. According to the press release, she was let go due to a lack of trust in her leadership and impartiality. According to The New York Times, it is now an official U.S. objective to take over Greenland.

– If something dramatic happens between the U.S. and Greenland while we’re there, we’ll just have to adjust as best we can. We’re discussing it continuously, and we spoke with the Danish embassy in Norway just two days ago, Haakon said the same week Statsraad Lehmkuhl departed.

– So far, the embassy sees no issues with our stop in Nuuk, and neither do Greenlandic authorities, continues Haakon.

The Panama Canal

The Panama Canal may also become a challenge. The conflict between the U.S. and Panama means the expedition must be prepared for a potential closure while the ship sails along the U.S. west coast.

It’s a complex process to get permission to transit the canal. Haakon explains that the planning started over a year ago. Rescheduling at short notice is not an option.

– I seriously doubt the canal will close. And even if something dramatic happens, Norway as a nation is unlikely to be part of that conflict, he says.

But if the worst should happen, a second rounding of Cape Horn may be necessary?

– Yes, we always have to be prepared for that. And as we learned from the previous expedition, flexibility is key. If the canal is closed, we’ll have to consider sailing around South America. That brings new challenges, but that’s just the way it is, says Haakon.

Sailing could become more expensive

In recent weeks, the global economy has shifted rapidly. The ship needs fuel and supplies, and crew and participants must fly in and out. How do currency fluctuations and rising prices affect the expedition?

– It’s definitely having an impact. It came on quite suddenly, and we need to assess what it means for us financially. Sailing may simply become more expensive. We don’t yet know how much, there’s a high degree of uncertainty.

Several of the voyage legs include voyage crew paying for their journey. Rising prices may make people hesitant. Is there a risk that some might pull out?

– Nearly 70% of our legs are chartered, meaning we have contracts with research institutes, the Navy, and others, so that revenue is solid. The open legs for the general public are also selling well, Haakon replies.

Fewer hands?

But what if people do pull out? You depend on voyage crew to sail the ship, literally to have enough hands on deck.

– If we end up with fewer people than planned, we’ll simply adjust the sail setting. We’ll use less canvas, make fewer maneuvers. That’s fine, the ship can be sailed by the permanent crew alone. We also have mechanical winches on deck to assist with sail handling if needed. So we’re prepared, and safety always comes first, says Haakon.

Important – and right

On the previous expedition, people from 62 nations sailed aboard Statsraad Lehmkuhl. Haakon is convinced that the One Ocean Expedition is more important than ever in today’s turbulent times. Both to raise awareness about the ocean and its importance to future generations, but especially because it brings together young people from across the globe.

– It’s not the younger generation that created this geopolitical situation, it’s us, the older ones. And there’s something deeply meaningful in having a ship that can serve as a kind of space for reconciliation, says Haakon.

– If we can use the sailing ship to help bring nations together, that makes me very proud. Even though it’s challenging, it also gives us energy. I’m very aware that what we are doing is important - and right. And when the seas get rough, it becomes even more clear why we’re doing this, he concludes.